From an email sent to the Coral Reef Task Force Steering Committee (I'm not on that committee, by the way):
Our Seasonal Bleaching Guidance product that we first released a year ago is now indicating that 2009 has a potential to be a bad bleaching year in much of the Caribbean. The NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Outlook indicates that there is a significant potential for high levels of thermal stress in the Caribbean in 2009, especially in the Lesser Antilles including the USVI and Puerto Rico. Based on our current model, there is a potential for higher thermal stress than normal in 2009. Other areas of concern in 2009 are central Pacific including the equatorial Line Islands and Kiribati. Some thermal stress may also develop between the Northern Marianas Islands and Japan. An important caveat is that the model used for this outlook is not yet calling for El Niño development, whereas NOAA’s operational Climate Forecast System is now calling for development of an El Niño during 2009-10. If El Niño conditions continue to strengthen, this could increase the bleaching risk in the central to eastern Pacific and Caribbean.Notice the mention of the Northern Mariana Islands? Sorry Iwo Jima.
I'll link to the announcement when it comes up; in the meantime visit the NOAA Coral Reef Watch Homepage.
Here is the NOAA Coral Reef Bleaching Outlook.